Smoky Locally.....Tropics Abuzz

Yes, the smoke in our local region is from the large wildfires in south Georgia and north Florida. A strong high pressure system aloft is trapping the smoke and haze locally creating poor visibility and air quality. Because the "High" has shifted east a bit, it places our region in direct line of the southeast wind which is transporting the smoke to the Tennessee Valley. We should again see smokey and hazy conditions Friday, with some improvment over the weekend as some hit and miss showers return.

The official start of the 2007 hurricane season is Friday, and the tropics are already a little interesting. A broad region of low pressure off the Yucatan coast is straddling the southern Gulf and northwestern Caribbean Sea. This "low" should drift north into the southern Gulf through Friday. Strong wind shear across the western Gulf should push this low north, then northeast. This means that our region should not see any moisture come our way. But, Florida could really benifit with several inches of rain expected over the weekend as this low moves across the peninsula. As far as any tropical development, it is possible, but it will mainly just be a heavy rain producer for Florida. Should it develop into a tropical storm, the name would be Barry.

Be sure to watch the latest Webcast for a full explanation of how the smoke has moved our way from south Georgia (link)

Don't miss the Blue Moon tonight. It will not be "blue" in color, but it will be the second full moon of the month. The Old Farmer's Almanac definition of a Blue Moon is 2 full moons during a calendar month, which applies to tonight's event. However, an old copy of another type of farmer's almanac from Maine tells a different story of the origin of the Blue Moon. Here is a link to an interesting alternate definition (link). Special thanks to one of our viewers, Henry Kuhlman for sharing this article!

Pattern Change Coming?

For the past few days, I have seen some consistency in the long range computer models. I will provide a link to this data at the end of today's posting. Both the European and American models are showing a weakening of the persistent upper level ridge of high pressure that has kept our region and most of the US southeast warm and dry this month. It is worth noting, that since the start of 2007, every-other month has experienced a prolonged period of high pressure ridging only to be followed by a weakning of the ridge the next month. January and March both had weeks of warm and dry conditions. February and April were cooler and "slightly" wetter (not by much though). So, as we enter the month of June on Friday, the pattern change could begin.

With a weakening of this high pressure ridge, an upper level trough will replace it. An upper level trough can help destablize the air enough to help trigger some afternoon showers locally. So, this pattern is not a drought buster. But, at the very least, could help stop the persistently dry pattern we have experienced for much of May. It will also become muggier with the increase in humidity, so morning temps may not be as comfortable as they have been lately. The long range projections do indicate that we may stay with this pattern the first 10 days of June. I will keep you posted.

Computer Model Links: GFS (American Model): Link
ECMWF (European Model): Link

Local Web Drought Headlines: Hiwassee Recreation Effected by Drought (Link)
Great Arictle on the "Hows" and "Whys" of Drought (Link)
Drought Update from The Peach State (Link)

Please be sure to stay up to date with local conditions on Newschannel 9. You can view today's webcast and live radar at www.newschannel9.com.

Drought at Extreme Level....Any Relief?

The current drought conditions that we are experiecning is declared as "Extreme" by the US Drought Monitor. A persistant high pressure system at the surface and aloft has kept our pattern consistently dry. The next few days continue to look dry, but a slight pattern change by the weekend could allow for a return of some scattered showers locally. The 6-10 outlook (2nd image) indicates the slightly above noraml rainfall chances by the weekend and early next week. Granted, it is not enough to wipe out the drought conditions, but it could provide our lawns and gardens with a much needed drink of water.
Please be sure to view my latest Webcast which will describe the upcoming 7 Day weather pattern changes (Webcast Link) .

Busy Hurricane Season Expected

For the first time in 9 years, I will not be a coastal resident when the hurricane season begins. Trust me, I am happy to be back home and an "inland" resident. From 1998-2006, I served as Chief Meteorologist at WPMI Pensacola/Mobile. I have always had a deep interest in tropical meteorology, and I was able to witness first hand some of the most destructive hurricanes in our nations history. In one calendar year from September 2004-August 2005, I was affected by Hurricanes Ivan, Dennis and Katrina. Ivan and Katrina rank in the top 10 most destructive storms in US history. Ivan was bad, but Katrina was horrific. We suffered wind damage to our roof and tree loss. Plus, no power or gas for days with 90+ degree heat. But, at least I still had my home, far too many people in my part of the Gulf coast were not so fortunate. So, I had no room to complain but be very thankful. Even through all of those storms, my interest and fascination is still there. I was able to get a hands on study of tropical storms and hurricanes that went far beyond what was taught to me in college years ago. So, as the 2007 season begins, I will watch it unfold with the same interest, but also with a greater feeling of safety being hundreds of miles inland.

The 2007 NOAA forecast is in agreement with many of the other early season forecasts. An above normal season looks to be in the cards once again. In fact, this years conditions are very similar to the 2004 season. Sea surface temperatures (SST's) are warmer than average in the hurricane development region. But, that's not the only ingredient. What also exists are lower than normal surface air pressures and high pressure aloft. That vertical make up of the atmosphere is prime for development. The easterly trade winds are also light which will allow growth by reducing wind shear that can usually rip up a storm during the early stages of development. NOAA expects a 75% chance of an above normal season. NOAA is projecting 13-17 named storms, 7-10 of those becoming hurricanes and 3-5 of those hurricanes becoming major (category 3 or above) storms.

What does this mean for the Tennessee Valley? Well, an increase in Gulf activity could lead to some drought busting rainfall should the landfall path move far inland. Past storms such as Opal (1995), Georges (1998) and Ivan (2004) brought heavy rain to our area. On the flip side though, Opal and Ivan brought wind damage locally, but far far less that what was experiecned on the Gulf coast. So, what may be bad news for the coastal regions, could be a little "good" news for us should the rainfall prospects pan out. Only time will tell though!

Here is a link to the list of names for the 2007 season and beyond...Is your name there? (link) Remember, Andrea has already been used for the Subtropical Storm that formed earlier this month. So, Barry is the next name on the list.

Summer Outlook...Hot

The Climate Prediction Center has released its outlook for the next 90 days and it looks hot. Please refer to my May 10th posting about why I believe that the drought we are experiencing could lead to a hotter than normal summer. The rainfall expectations are mixed with our region being in the "EC" category. This means that we have equal chances of being above or below normal. Again, I believe the upcoming tropical season will determine how wet we will be this summer and early fall.

Weather Web Headlines:
Wildfires affecting Smoky Mountains near Cades Cove (link)
Clear nights are perfect for star gazing, here is a great link that shows what's seen in our local skies (link)

Beautiful Weekend Ahead

Temperatures Friday morning were quite cool across the Tennessee Valley. Here is a sampling of the morning readings:

Chattanooga: 53

Dalton, GA: 50

Crossville, TN: 44

Murphy, NC: 42

Ft Payne, AL: 41

Robbinsville, NC: 37

Newfound Gap (TN/NC Border 5000ft elevation): 34

Mount LeConte, TN (6400 ft - Smokies): 29

With a clear sky and lighter breeze through Saturday morning, temperatures across our region should reach the lower/middle 40s. The record low temperature for Chattanooga Saturday morning is 40. The weekend should exhibit some warmer temperatures each afternoon with middle 70s Saturday and around 80 Sunday. Temperatures should warm back above normal next week with a slight chance of showers by Wednesday. Have a safe weekend!!!!!

Web Weather Headlines:

Drought & Late Chill Causing Bear Problems in Blairsville (link)

Hurricane Katrina's 2 Eyewalls - (A great story by a friend of mine in Mobile, AL) - (link)

Mid-May Chill

A chill in mid May is often called "Blackberry Winter". Granted, this cool spell is nowhere near the record cold of April, but it is below normal. Our normal low temperature this time of year is 56 degrees, we should be about 10 degrees below that value Friday through Sunday morning. Thursday morning was just the start of the cooling trend, here is a sampling of this morning's lows:

Ft Payne, AL: 41
Robbinsville, NC: 41
Crossville, TN: 43
Murphy, NC: 46
Dalton, GA: 50
Chattanooga: 52

Most areas in the lower elevations should see temperatures in the upper 40s by Friday morning. The mountain tops should have readings in the lower 40s and even a few upper 30 degree readings in the highest elevations of the Blue Ridge Mtns (Big Frog Mtn, Grassy Mtn). Morning temperatures over the weekend should be in the middle 40s valley locations and near 40 mountains. The weekend looks outstanding with sunshine and warm afternoons from 75 to 80 degrees.

Today's Weather Web Headlines:
Smoke from South Georgia Wildfires Reaches Atlanta (link)
Improved Hurricane Monitoring this Season (link)
National Hurricane Center vs NOAA for Funding (link)

Please be sure to read my other postings from the past week regarding other weather headlines from around the Tennessee Valley.

Stirring Up The Dust

Today's rainfall amounts were expected to be light and one look at the Doppler image above shows just that. 1/10 of an inch amounts were common. We had 0.19 inches at our studios on Benton Drive in Chattanooga. Other rainfall amounts from our Live Neighborhood Net include:

Etowah, TN (City School): 0.32"

Athens, TN (Westside School): 0.30"

South Pittsburg, TN (SP Elementary): 0.08"

LaFayette, GA (Middle School): 0.03"

McCallie School: 0.02"

Be sure to see other local totals from the StormTrack 9 Live Neighborhood Net (link)

Get ready for cooler temperatures as a northerly breeze ushers in some cooler than normal conditions. Temperatures by Thursday morning should be in the lower 50s, and into the 40s Friday and Saturday morning. If you have plans for the weekend, the weather looks terrific with sunny days and low humidity.

Update on Brush fires in Gilmer County & National Forest (link)

The Hurricane Hunter Squadron will be visiting Atlanta (link)

Showers Coming, But Not A Drought Buster

A cold front to our west should sweep across our region Wednesday. This will set off a nice coverage of much needed rain from after sunrise through the early afternoon Wednesday. The fast pace of the front will not allow the showers to last too long, so on average we can expect anywhere between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of rain. Our yearly deficit stands at 10.95 inches, so Wednesday's rain will do little to end the severe drought conditions over the Tennessee Valley and southeasterm US. We should have dry and cooler than normal conditions Thursday through the weekend. Morning low temperatures should be in the middle 40s Friday and Saturday morning. High temperatures should be in the middle 70s through Saturday and near 80 Sunday.

Be sure to use all of our online weather tools to track the weather changes on Wednesday:

StormTrack 9 Video Webcast and 7-Day Forecast (click here)

StormTrack 9 Live Super Doppler (click here)

StormTrack 9 Live Neighborhood Net (click here)

Changes Ahead for the Week

Our daily average low temperature is still in the upper 50s. And, as June approaches, our comfortable mornings will be replaced by the usual mugginess of the summer season. So, enjoy the cool mornings while they stick around. I mention this because most of the week ahead will exhibit some cool mornings, especially toward the end of the week. A cold front should swep across the Tennessee Valley Wednesday which will help set off some scattered showers. At this point, I do not forsee an outbreak of severe storms, but a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Once the front passes, some cooler than normal conditions are expected for Thursday and Friday. Daily lows could actually dip into the middle/upper 40s Friday morning (blackberry winter?). Conditions should remain dry through the upcoming weekend. Please see my Storm Track 9 7Day Forecast and Video Cast.

Other Local Weather Headlines:

*- Update on Brush Fires in Gilmer County & National Forest (web link)

* - April 2007 Cool for most of East Tennessee (web link)

* - Hurricane Hunters Coming to Atlanta May 26th (web link)

Mother's Day Weekend

Some much needed rain fell in a locations Friday. Parts of Marion and Grundy County received between 1 and 2 inches of rain. In the Blue Ridge Mountains, Fannin (GA) and Cherokee (NC) County received a little over an inch of rain. Downtown Chattanooga, like many spots, did not receive a drop. We should see another development of scattered t-showers Saturday afternoon. The best coverage of showers should be over southern parts of our viewing area. Much drier conditions should prevail Sunday for Mother's Day. Expect sunshine and afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s. Dry and warm conditions should continue into next week.

You can stay up to date on the latest weather conditions at www.newschannel9.com.

* StormTrack 9 Live Super Doppler

* StormTrack 9 7-Day Forecast & Video Web Cast

* StormTrack9 Live Neighborhood Net

Happy Mother's Day!!!!!! Have a safe weekend!

Watching the Doppler this Afternoon/Evening

I am closely following the progress of some slow moving t-storms across our region. We have already had a warning issued for a cell in Marion County. It is possible that a few other storms could reach severe limits with damaging wind and hail. Other storms will primarily produce brief heavy downpours and frequent lightning strikes. I will have an update coming up on Newschannel 9 at 5, 5:30, 6 and 11 this evening.

Follow these storms from our Live Super Doppler (click here).

Severe Drought....Hot Summer Ahead?

As of today, our yearly rainfall deficit stands at just over 10 1/2 inches. This is coming off a very dry year locally in 2006. These conditions have led to our region being placed under the "Severe Drought" category by the US Drought Monitor (1st picture on left). The Drought Monitor closely studies the entire country and determines the severity of dry spells. These drought conditions leading into the summer, could cause a warmer than normal summer.

A normal rain pattern would have led to an ample ground supply of water. Moisture in the top layer of the soil can serve to keep temperatures in check through evaporation. Granted, the added moisture in the air provides a muggy feeling, the evaporation and evapotranspiration process will keep air temperatures near seasonal levels. A parched, dry soil layer will absorb and retain the heat, therefore warming the air and leading to above normal temperatures. Again, on the flip side, it is not as humid, but very hot. The 2 week temperature trend keeps us in the above normal category. So, unless a wetter than normal pattern begins to take hold in June, we could be in for a hot summer. Please see my earlier post (Tuesday) about an active Gulf tropical season and our chances of rain.

Locally, our chance of at least some scattered showers will be a little higher through Saturday. Please be sure to see our Live Super Doppler for frequent updates. Mother's Day should be dry and warm, followed by another dry start to the upcoming week. Please see the Storm Track 9 7-Day Forecast and Video Webcast.

Andrea Downgraded

After only 24 hours as the seasons first named storm, Andrea has been downgraded to a tropical depression. The remnant depression will continue to lurk and weaken off the Florida coast. The heaviest rain will stay well east of the depression's center, out to sea. Only scattered showers will reach the Florida/Georgia coast. So, not much help provided for all of the fires down there. In fact, the depression is doing more harm than good, because the wind is fanning the flames.

Hello Andrea!

The official start of the 2007 hurricane season is June 1st. Beginning in 2002, the National Hurricane Center started assigning names to "subtropical" systems. A subtropical storm is a storm that is not truly tropical (warm core) in its origin. For example, Andrea began as an upper level, cool core low pressure system. Due to its slow movment off the southeast US coast, it began to have thunderstorms develop around the center and gain some warm core, tropical characteristics, especially at the lower levels. Once the Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the system early Wednesday, they determined that this system was subtropical and assigned the name "Andrea". Andrea will not threaten the southeast US coast with much damage or rainfall, mainly just a nuisance to tourists. The heavier rain should stay offshore, and wind gusts will go above tropical storm strength (39 mph and above). Andrea should drift just off the Florida coast and slowly weaken through early Saturday. Andrea will have no impact on our local weather. The 2003 hurricane season got off to an even earlier start with the formation of Subtropical Storm Ana in late April of that year near Bermuda.

Follow this link to the Newschannel 9 Hurricane Data Center (Just below the local 7 day forecast)

Today's Newschannel 9 Webcast also details the path of Andrea.

Our local weather was hot and dry with many of us seeing temperatures in the upper 80s. Expect the humidity to increase a bit through Friday. This should eventually lead to some scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Don't cancel those outside plans just yet, the threat of rain is just on a scattered basis. The best coverage of showers should shift to the south on Saturday. We should be dry for Mother's Day Sunday.

Sunglasses on the Moon?

One of my favorite features of this blog will be sharing viewer photos. This photo was sent in by Kathryn Harris of Chattanooga, taken early Friday morning. It really looks as if the moon has some nice "shades" on! Thank you Kathryn for sharing this photo.

We experienced some outstanding weather again Tuesday, but we are in dire need of some rain. Our yearly deficit stands at just under 10 and 1/4 inches. Only scattered showers are possible to end the week, and not the all around soaking rains that we need. It is so dry that parts of the Peach State have burn bans. See this link for more details: Walker County Burn Ban.

As we get closer to the summer season, our chances for rain will be limited to the afternoon variety that routinely pops up. Because of the scattered nature of these showers, not every location will benifit from the rainfall. Outside of the afternoon variety of showers, what we will have to watch is the activity in the tropics. Nobody wants to root for an active season, but active Gulf years tend to help our region with rainfall. The National Hurricane Center will release thier seasonal forecast Monday, May 14th. However, early outlooks have already been released by the Colorado State University team of Dr. Gray and Phillip Klotzbach. Accu-Weather's hurricane expert Joe Bastardi has also chimed in with his outlook. The National Hurricane Center projection usually closely mirrors the Colorado State numbers. Early outlooks are pointing toward more activity in the tropics, especially in the Gulf. Again, while this may cause some jitters in coastal communities, folks inland (like us), will have a different view of increased Gulf activity in hopes of more rain. You can read a brief synopsis of the early forecasts at this link: Early Season Hurricane Forecasts. I will provide a link to the NHC forecast on Monday.

Some pre-season excitement with a current non-tropical low pressure system off the southeast US Atlantic coast. Hurricane Hunter aircraft might investigate this system should it persist in the Atlantic waters and gain more tropical characteristics. Regardless, it is generating gale force wind gusts and beach erosion off the Carolina, Georgia and Florida coasts. Check out the status and satellite images of this system at this link: Southeast Coast Low

Be sure to check out my daily video webcast at NewsChannel9.com

Storm Track 9 Blog Kickoff

Welcome to the Storm Track 9 Weather Blog!

I look forward to sharing my thoughts with you about the weather patterns of the Tennessee Valley. As a Tennessee Valley native, you can count on me to provide you with in depth information about our local conditions. With hurricane season just around the corner, I will also be closely watching every cloud swirl in the Gulf and Atlantic. I spent 8 years on the Alabama/Florida Gulf coast forecasting tropical storms and hurricanes. I have broadcasted 11 tropical systems in all including direct hits by Hurricane Ivan, Dennis and Katrina.

This is a blog, so that means you can be a part! Comments are always welcome, and I will also be showing viewer pictures that are emiled to me.

Thanks for stopping by, and stay tuned for future blog updates!