Felix Ashore.....Another System Closer to U.S. to Watch

Major Hurricane Felix roared ashore at Category 5 strength along the northeast coast of Nicaragua close to the Honduras border. Felix strengthened during the predawn hours as it went through an Eyewall Replacement Cycle. During this cycle, the sustained wind initially dropped late yesterday, but then rapidly strengthened during the completion of the cycle just before landfall. This marks the second category 5 landfall this season. Both Dean and Felix fed off nearly perfect surface and upper level conditions to pull off such feats. There is a lot of talk about the warm water being the main ingredient. Well, it is one important ingredient, but not the only one. The Caribbean waters are always going to be warm, it is a low latitude body of water. So, yes, during the height of the hurricane season, you can bet on the warmest water of the season. Upper atmospheric conditions play a huge part in a storms survival. During both Dean and Felix, a strong ridge of high pressure was situated north of the storm. The same ridge of high pressure that brought our region the extreme heat. The strength of that "high" allowed Dean first of all to be well ventilated and lacking of any shear to disrupt its development. A slightly weaker, but otherwise strong ridge again is positioned over the US southeast and Gulf which steered Felix and created similar perfect conditions for development. The developing La Nina conditions off the western South America coast plays a role in these upper level conditions. La Nina is the opposite of El Nino. It is a cooling of the waters off the South American coast which also affects global weather patterns and occurs on intervals opposite of El Nino. When a La Nina is developing or is in place, we expect hurricane conditions to be above normal. This occurs because La Nina creates a lack of wind shear in the tropical development region. With a lack of shear, storms can more easily develop and strengthen. During an El Nino episode, wind shear increase in the tropical development region and that can serve to prevent development or help weaken a developed storm. So, year in and year out, the Caribbean waters are plenty warm, but it's the upper level factors that go a long way in determining the outcome of a storm.

Another area to watch for development is off the southeast US coast. Currently, it is a non tropical low. But, should it continue drifting off the coast around the region of the warm, Gulf Stream waters, the "low" could become a warm core, or tropical system. Some computer model guidance shows this system drifting for 24-48 hours before gaining some strength and backing west toward the coast. So, as we enter the peak of the hurricane season there is a lot to watch.

Major Hurricane Felix Threatens Southern Caribbean

Felix is now a major hurricane reaching category 5 strength!

Hurricane Felix is slowly creeping westward through the southern Caribbean Sea. Aruba is feeling the effects of the south side of the storm. Felix should continue a westward motion gaining a little latitude north through early next week. Belize could be the next landmass Felix affects next week.
Elsewhere in the tropics, there are 2 areas being monitored. The first is off the Georgia coast. This is a an area of low pressure that is left over from a decayed frontal zone. With very weak upper level support, systems such as these have to be closely watched for signs of any tropical development. It should slowly drift east. The second area to watch is between the US and Africa. This tropical wave is not showing immediate signs of development, but could over the next few days. September is the peak month of hurricane season, with the peak day of the season on the 10th. The "peak weeks" of the season continue through October 15th. The season does not end until November 30.

Hurricane Katrina....My Look Back

At times it feels like it's been longer, but other times it feels like yesterday. Today marks the second anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. On August 29, 2005 I was serving as Chief Meteorologist at WPMI-TV Mobile/Pensacola. We were in the midst of our wall to wall coverage of the storm that began 2 days earlier. Katrina would be the third major hurricane to arrive near our doorstep during one calendar year. Hurricane Ivan pounded our local coastline the September before and Hurricane Dennis rubbed salt in Ivan's wounds 2 months earlier. Of all the evacuation plans executed before, this one was the biggest.
My wife and children evacuated for the third time in less than a year. I sent them on their way the day before Katrina struck to seek refuge at my inlaws in Ft Payne, AL. As a meteorologist, I had some long hours ahead of me and I needed as much time as possible to prep our house and then be ready for the LONG work day(s) ahead. Having my family evacuated was a huge relief. I knew they were safe, and with my house secured with the storm shutters, I could then focus squarely on my job. Katrina was no surprise, we saw it coming and knew that once the storm passed over the Gulf Loop Current, its strength would grow. Mobile was not going to be the point of landfall, but it was going to be on the dangerous east side of the hurricane which would bring an incredible storm surge and high wind.
Sunday, August 28, our broadcast schedule required each meteorologist to work a 12 hour shift. So, I had a whole 1/2 day on the air, the other 12 hours spent prepping for the storm, forecasting, and trying to catch a nap. Most of that day was sunny and hot with intermittent periods of thunderstorms. To their credit, most Mobilians wasted no time getting ready for Katrina's visit. By sundown, all preparations came to a end and the worst of Katrina was nearing our doorstep. It was one of those days where I hoped my forecast would be wrong. The forecast included a 10-14 ft storm surge with wind exceeding 100mph.
Monday, August 29th is a day I will never forget. Katrina made the first landfall along the coastal region of Louisiana around 6am and then the second landfall along the Louisiana/Mississippi border. Mobile never noticed the difference. Since before 6am and through mid afternoon, the pounding wind and rain was being unleashed. All the while, the waters of Mobile Bay were being pushed into the city streets. The resulting storm surge brought a near record level of 13ft of water. Our broadcast plans were interrupted at about 9am when the station's generator caught on fire. This resulted in complete failure of the electrical system. During hurricane broadcasts, we would simulcast with area radio stations because so many people would lose power during the storm. With no power at the television building, we had to drive toward downtown to the radio building to continue our broadcasts. It was true "white knuckle" driving for a while with debris covered roads, and yet more airborne debris flying around. We spent the next 13 hours on the radio through midnight before a shift change. By midnight, the storm had passed and all that was left was DARKNESS. I attempted to drive home and what would normally be a 10 minute drive, took nearly an hour. Debris covered roads and no street lights made for a trip I will never forget. Once I got home, I was relieved that the house was intact except for the shingles sheared off the roof. I felt fortunate, because so many people were left homeless along the Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana coast.
There are certain levels of exhaustion and emotion that I found myself going through before and after the storm. There is the physical exhaustion of boarding up and preparing your home while balancing the hours of my job which were quite demanding. Then, there is the mental exhaustion because of the anxiety building up before and during the storm. Emotional exhaustion would rise and fall before, during and after the storm. Telling your family goodbye and seeing your children leave with tears in their eyes because Dad has to stay behind...that's not easy. Seeing members of your community lose everything is tough to watch as you sit in a house that is still standing. And, it was not just the local community of Mobile. Areas to the west along the Mississippi and Louisiana coast saw total devastation. Many of those people migrated east toward Mobile for help. What still haunts me to this day are the dazed and lost expressions on their faces. They needed food, water and shelter. They had reached the point of desperation. Fortunately, the Mobile community provided their needs. There were long lines at grocery stores, and no gasoline anywhere for miles. Power was not restored for days, and trust me it was VERY hot those days after Katrina.
State and local officials in Alabama responded immediately and our region was spared the finger pointing and blame game issues that occurred to our west in Louisiana. I witnessed that aspect like many of you did via television reports. It was a totally different type of damage level with levee flooding than the quick in and out storm surge flooding we had on the Alabama coast. Their flooding would last much longer. the US Coast Guard headquarters for the Gulf region is in Mobile. They were flying rescue missions in MS and LA nonstop for days even during the storm. The sound of the helicopters filled the skies constantly.
During the 16 years of my career in meteorology, I hope I never see another year like 2004-2005. Ivan, Dennis and Katrina was enough experience for a lifetime. Despite the devastation I was thankful to be a part of a community getting back on its feet. I saw the worst in mother nature, but the best in mankind.
As I write this now during the heart of the 2007 hurricane season, I can say with 110% certainty, that I am glad to be back home in the Tennessee Valley :)

Pictures:
1: Landry's Restaurant - Biloxi, MS
2: West side of Mobile Bay, AL
3: Storm Shutters on our Mobile, AL home

Eclipse Photos....Showers Return!

A very big "thank you" to Kathryn Harris of Hixson for sending in her photos of this morning's lunar eclipse. The eclipse was seen low on the western horizon, which may have been blocked by the local mountains and ridges for some of you. Those who did see it saw a nice treat just before sunrise. In case you missed it, don't worry, you will get another chance coming up in February.

Welcome back rainfall!!! Granted, the storms were just scattered in nature, but those if us that did experience rain received almost an inch of rain. The official reading at Lovell Field was 0.94 inches, but only 0.21" at the WTVC studios. before the storms arrived the temperature peaked out at 95 degrees. That means that 24 of the past 25 days have been 95 or higher...whew! Temperatures should take a break the next few days as we should see a daily round of afternoon t-showers. The best coverage should come on Thursday with a front slowly moving in.

Total Lunar Eclipse Tuesday Morning

You will have to get up early to enjoy this celestial treat. With a full moon in place, the moon will pass in the shadow of the earth which will block the sun's rays from reaching the moon. The end result will be a darkened, rusty colored moon which will be visible for almost 2 hours. The partial eclipse will begin at 4:51am, then enter the total eclipse phase from 5:52am-7:22am. The end partial phase will take place at 8:24am. unlike a solar eclipse, you do not need special tools or eye guards to view it. It will be visible with the naked eye, and even better through a telescope lens.

As I mentioned in an earlier posting, the Mars Email Hoax continues to generate calls and email. This Email sounds impressive, but it is a hoax. I am only repeating this because tonight is the night the Email mentioned. And, I just want everyone to realize that the rusty colored moon tonight is indeed the moon....and not Mars.

Another Record Falls

102 was the official high temperature in Chattanooga Friday which just nudged out the old record of 101 set in 1968. The record streak of now 21 days 95 degrees or higher continues and we are still on pace for the hottest August ever with an average temperature of 86.2 degrees.

Thunderstorms made a return to the area. Some were severe with marble size hail reports from Cleveland and heavy rain in many spots. The rain helped cool things off for some of the high school football games, but other game sites were still hot and dry. The pattern that we saw Friday should repeat itself for Saturday as thundershowers once again pop up. Afternoon temps should stay below record levels Saturday, but still be plenty hot in the upper 90s.

Only the Records Are Falling!

Not only was a daily record high set in Chattanooga, it was within 1 degree of tying the all time record high. 105 was recorded at Lovell Field at 2:26pm which surpassed the old record of 102 set in 1968. The all time record high is 106 set on July 28, 1952. We are also seeing other records fall. We are still on pace for the hottest August on record with an average temperature of 86 degrees far above the current record holder of August 1993 with an average of 82.5. We have experienced 20 straight of temperatures above 95. The old record was 18 days in late August and early September of 1993. We could set another record Friday with highs around 100. The record is 101, so another record is within reach.