Pattern Change Coming?

For the past few days, I have seen some consistency in the long range computer models. I will provide a link to this data at the end of today's posting. Both the European and American models are showing a weakening of the persistent upper level ridge of high pressure that has kept our region and most of the US southeast warm and dry this month. It is worth noting, that since the start of 2007, every-other month has experienced a prolonged period of high pressure ridging only to be followed by a weakning of the ridge the next month. January and March both had weeks of warm and dry conditions. February and April were cooler and "slightly" wetter (not by much though). So, as we enter the month of June on Friday, the pattern change could begin.

With a weakening of this high pressure ridge, an upper level trough will replace it. An upper level trough can help destablize the air enough to help trigger some afternoon showers locally. So, this pattern is not a drought buster. But, at the very least, could help stop the persistently dry pattern we have experienced for much of May. It will also become muggier with the increase in humidity, so morning temps may not be as comfortable as they have been lately. The long range projections do indicate that we may stay with this pattern the first 10 days of June. I will keep you posted.

Computer Model Links: GFS (American Model): Link
ECMWF (European Model): Link

Local Web Drought Headlines: Hiwassee Recreation Effected by Drought (Link)
Great Arictle on the "Hows" and "Whys" of Drought (Link)
Drought Update from The Peach State (Link)

Please be sure to stay up to date with local conditions on Newschannel 9. You can view today's webcast and live radar at www.newschannel9.com.