Busy Hurricane Season Expected

For the first time in 9 years, I will not be a coastal resident when the hurricane season begins. Trust me, I am happy to be back home and an "inland" resident. From 1998-2006, I served as Chief Meteorologist at WPMI Pensacola/Mobile. I have always had a deep interest in tropical meteorology, and I was able to witness first hand some of the most destructive hurricanes in our nations history. In one calendar year from September 2004-August 2005, I was affected by Hurricanes Ivan, Dennis and Katrina. Ivan and Katrina rank in the top 10 most destructive storms in US history. Ivan was bad, but Katrina was horrific. We suffered wind damage to our roof and tree loss. Plus, no power or gas for days with 90+ degree heat. But, at least I still had my home, far too many people in my part of the Gulf coast were not so fortunate. So, I had no room to complain but be very thankful. Even through all of those storms, my interest and fascination is still there. I was able to get a hands on study of tropical storms and hurricanes that went far beyond what was taught to me in college years ago. So, as the 2007 season begins, I will watch it unfold with the same interest, but also with a greater feeling of safety being hundreds of miles inland.

The 2007 NOAA forecast is in agreement with many of the other early season forecasts. An above normal season looks to be in the cards once again. In fact, this years conditions are very similar to the 2004 season. Sea surface temperatures (SST's) are warmer than average in the hurricane development region. But, that's not the only ingredient. What also exists are lower than normal surface air pressures and high pressure aloft. That vertical make up of the atmosphere is prime for development. The easterly trade winds are also light which will allow growth by reducing wind shear that can usually rip up a storm during the early stages of development. NOAA expects a 75% chance of an above normal season. NOAA is projecting 13-17 named storms, 7-10 of those becoming hurricanes and 3-5 of those hurricanes becoming major (category 3 or above) storms.

What does this mean for the Tennessee Valley? Well, an increase in Gulf activity could lead to some drought busting rainfall should the landfall path move far inland. Past storms such as Opal (1995), Georges (1998) and Ivan (2004) brought heavy rain to our area. On the flip side though, Opal and Ivan brought wind damage locally, but far far less that what was experiecned on the Gulf coast. So, what may be bad news for the coastal regions, could be a little "good" news for us should the rainfall prospects pan out. Only time will tell though!

Here is a link to the list of names for the 2007 season and beyond...Is your name there? (link) Remember, Andrea has already been used for the Subtropical Storm that formed earlier this month. So, Barry is the next name on the list.