90 Day Outlook...Any Relief?

Over the past week, our weather pattern was a little more generous with rainfall. During the one week span from June 25th to July 2nd, the official rainfall total recorded at the airport was 1.79 inches. Before last week, it had taken from May 5th to June 24th (49 days) for us to receive a similar total of 1.83 inches. So, have we finally turned the corner? The answer is sort of a "yes" and "no" answer.

Yes, we are finally seeing the afternoon showers and storms that are so common in the Tennessee Valley and Southeast during the summer. Some areas received far greater totals than the airport over the past week, but some localized spots did not receive much at all. So, the overall drought continues because of the extent of our rainfall deficit and the sporadic nature of the rainfall received. At the very least, our lawns are greener!

The "no" answer to a pattern change is simply because of the fact that the rainfall we have seen is scattered in nature. The overall pattern for the next 8-14 days still indicates a similar pattern of scattered daily showers, but no uniform chance of rain that everyone shares in equally. So, this will at least slow down the expansion of the drought and only slowly chip away at the deficit.

As I have mentioned on many occasions in this blog, the key to our hopes of rain lies within the peak of the hurricane season. Granted, the tropics have been quiet since June 3rd and that has made some news headlines because of it. However, June and July are typically quieter months in the tropics. August through October is the true meat of the season with September 10th the peak day of the hurricane season. So, there is quite a way to go! An active tropical season around the northern Gulf coast can help create a weather pattern more conducive for sustained periods of rain even as far inland as the Tennessee Valley. And, should a landfalling storm
make it as far north as Chattanooga, heavier rain can result. We have experienced this in the past with such storms as Hurricane Ivan (2004), Hurricane Opal (1995) and even Hurricane Eloise (1975)...all northern Gulf coast storms. I certainly do not wish for a major hurricane strike on the already battered Gulf coast, let me make that perfectly clear. But weaker storms and mild tropical storms can provide a similar "wet" scenario to the Southeast and Tennessee Valley, so this would be the scenario we need to look for.

The new 90 day outlook for temperature and rainfall has been released by the Climate Prediction Center. The temperature outlook keeps us in a possible above normal category through the end of September. The rainfall outlook keeps the Tennessee Valley below normal. However, the above normal category surrounds the Gulf and southeast Atlantic coast indicating that an above normal tropical season is still expected as the peak of the season arrives. So, I still believe that this will be the key to our region finally seeing a turn around if we are to reverse this drought. Only time will tell!