Hurricane season begins every year on June 1. But, the "real" hurricane season really kicks off August 1. If a hurricane season was compared to an NFL season, we would still only be in the preseason. I spent the last 8 hurricane seasons on the Alabama/Florida Gulf coast. I was able to forecast and experience some of the most destructive hurricanes in US history (Ivan and Katrina). Granted, we did have a few early season hurricanes in June and July (Dennis in 2005), but the true meat of the season gets underway after August 1. I have already seen a few national news reports that are a little premature and impatient with their reporting claiming that the 2007 hurricane season is a bust. The hurricane season is a long way from being over, and here are some stats to drive home this point.
During an "average" hurricane season, the first named storm usually occurs by July 10. For 2007, we are already ahead of schedule with Tropical Storm Andrea occuring in May and Tropical Storm Barry on June 1-2. The first hurricane of an average season should occur by August 14th, which is still 3 weeks away. The first major hurricane of an average season typically occurs by September 3rd (6 weeks from now). The statistical peak of the season is not until September 10th. So, as these statistics show, its way to early to call the 2007 season a bust. The extremely busy 2004 season really did not get cranked up until the second week of August with Bonnie and Charley hitting Florida just 2 days apart.
The available heat potential in the Gulf is above normal, but lower in the western Atlantic. So, the Gulf coast has conditions which are ripe for sustaining a developed storm should one move into the Gulf basin. The position of the Bermuda High off the US east coast is providing an alley way which still tends to favor Florida and the central/eastern Gulf for tropical activity.
So, as the "preseason" ends and the busy part of the season kicks off, you can depend on the Storm Track 9 team to keep you posted of storms that could affect your beach plans and those that could have some local impact.
Interesting Editorial from the Wall Street Journal written by hurricane expert Dr. William Gray - (Link)
2 comments:
Thanks for the info on The Hurricane Season to come,David. I just hope and pray that it will not affect alt of people and their homes.
Thanks for the info David. I hope and pray that it will not affect alot of people and their homes.
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