Dean Heads For Mexico...Record August Heat Locally

After a weekend visit to Jamaica, Dean should continue a westward motion passing south of the Cayaman Islands. This will also include a pass over the warmest waters of the Caribbean Sea and allow for more intensification possibly to Category 5 strength. The Mexican coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is the next land mass to be affected. Popular tourist sites like Cancun and Cozumel will be affected by the outer bands of Dean, while the center will pass south of there. Tulum, a city on the coast by south of Cancun, could be near the area hardest hit. Tulum took a devastating blow from Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Dean could be another setback. Once Dean passes over the Yucatan, there should be significant weakening and even a pass back into the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche will still not allow Dean to return to its prior strength before a second landfall in Mexico.

Locally, the heat continues and we are well on our way to setting the record for the all time hottest August. Here is where we stand so far, through Sunday the average temperature for the month was 85.8 degrees. The current record holding August was in 1993 with an average temperature of 82.5 degrees. Do the math and you realize that this August could shatter the old record by leaps and bounds! As I have mentioned in past posts, the reason for this extreme heat not only lies with upper atmospheric conditions, but the extreme drought. The lack of soil moisture and subsequent moisture in the air allows for higher surface heating temperatures. It's kind of like baking some cookies with dough that is not moist enough....they will burn in a short period of time. Our humidity levels should only slowly move up over the next few days, and a few isolated showers are possible. Air temperature readings should remain in the upper 90s with a visit to 100 not impossible during the work week. Some relief may be in sight for next week. An upper level trough has been indicated by several long range computer model runs. While the timing is differnt with each model run, the models are consistent in indicating that suh a trough should develop somewhere in the 6-10 day time frame. This could take a huge chunk out of the heat and even swing some showers/thunderstorms our way with the passage of a cold front. The latest 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is starting to show signs of the changes ahead. Again, we have another very hot week ahead, but some signs of change are slowly emerging for the following week.