The hurricane forecast team of Dr. William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach at Colorado State University have released their forecast for the remainder or "peak" of the hurricane season. Each season, regularly scheduled updates are released to apply June and July weather conditions to the forecast for the remainder of the season. Their newest update includes a slight reduction from the 17 expected named storms in their June 1st forecast. However, the overall numbers remain well above normal. As of August 2, there have been 3 named storms. Their forecast calls for an additional 13 named storms, with 8 of those possibly becoming hurricanes. Of those 8 hurricanes, 4 could become major hurricanes (category 3 and above). This means that the season total could be between 15-16 named storms. The Gray/Klotzbach team expects a 44% chance of a major hurricane affecting the US Gulf Coast (the normal risk is 30%). The U.S. East Coast is given a 43% risk of a major hurricane making landfall. One very important factor to remember about these forecasts is that the "number of storms" is not the main factor. The fact that they are expecting 13-15 storms indicates a value that is above the normal trend of 10 named storms per year. So, they are favoring another above normal season as we head into the most dangerous part of the season.
The reason behind their slight reduction in the number of expected storms is due to the fact that the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic have cooled during July. However, a lack of EL Nino resulting in cooler waters off South America may mean less wind shear in the tropics to prevent storm formation. Conditions such as this have led to busier than normal seasons. And, even though the tropical Atlantic breeding ground is slightly cooler, The Gulf waters are above normal, thus the above normal risk to the Gulf states.
So, what does this mean for the Tennessee Valley? Well, in some of my earlier postings I have stated that an active Gulf season can help produce above average rainfall locally depending upon the path of the storm. Since 1995, storms such as Opal and Ivan brought soaking rains locally, but also unfortunately produced some wind damage. Atlantic storms tend not to bring much rain our way. We are often times on the drier west side of storms that make landfall along the Carolina coast.
Here is a link to the full report: Gray/Klotzbach Hurricane Forecast Update
3 comments:
David I don't think we will have that many storms this year. I mean Hurricanes. I think it will be somewhat lower. I know that we are coming into the peak time of Hurricane season. My thinking could be wrong, but it's always fun to go against the odds. When will you give us your take on the up coming fall season ? I know it's still early but, only 40 something days to fall. Thanks...
I'm hoping we get at least two to come through our area! Need to make up the deficit in precip! :)
Yes...A lot of us are thinking "Fall" right now wit the heat. It is my favorite time of year. It looks as if the pace we are on now with August should result in one of the hottest August's our region will have experienced in quite some time. Early indications are that the first half of the Autumn season "could" stay above normal for temperatures with near normal rainfall. The height of the tropical season in September could have a say in all of this, so we will have to wait and see.
Post a Comment